Timothy B. Gage

I am interested in the evolution of life histories including the international, historic, pre-historic, and inter-ethnic variability of human demographic rates and the causes of this variability. I am currently pursuing research in several specific areas:

1. Statistical modeling of infant mortality using population based parametric mixtures of logistic regression,
2. Developing methods of demographic analysis applicable to endangered species, including the non-human primates, and
3. Prehistoric human demography.

The ongoing research into infant mortality is developing statistical models for fully implementing the “proximate determinants model” of infant mortality.  The models account for heterogeneity in the birth cohort using conventional parametric mixture models but extend the mixture model to include logistic probabilities of mortality on each mixture.  The results to date suggest that heterogeneity may play a role in the well known “pediatric paradox”--that is, the observation that at low birthweight African-American mortality is lower than European-American mortality despite higher African-American infant mortality overall. 

Interests: Human biology, demography, population genetics, quantitative methods 
Areas: Oceania